From Charts to Evidence Statements
Learning objective: write claims bounded by the data; separate observation, interpretation, and unknowns.
A chart does not speak for itself; the sentence written next to it does most of the persuading. The most common failure is a caption that claims more than the chart can support, quietly turning a correlation or a single period's snapshot into a causal or permanent conclusion.
Observation
- A fact directly readable from the chart
- "Entity E01's emissions intensity fell from 42 to 34 between 2023 and 2025."
- Reproducible by anyone looking at the same chart
Interpretation
- A reasoned view based on the observation, with its basis stated
- "This may reflect the efficiency program launched in 2024, though other factors could contribute."
- Must be labeled as interpretation, not fact
| Overstated claim | Bounded evidence statement |
|---|---|
| "The efficiency program cut emissions." | "Emissions intensity fell 19% after the program started; the chart alone cannot confirm the program caused the change." |
| "Site B is the worst performer." | "Site B had the highest incident rate per 1,000 staff in the latest period; earlier periods are not shown here." |
before = df[(df["entity_id"] == "E01") & (df["period"] == "2023") & (df["metric"] == "emissions_intensity")]["value"].iloc[0]
after = df[(df["entity_id"] == "E01") & (df["period"] == "2025") & (df["metric"] == "emissions_intensity")]["value"].iloc[0]
change_pct = round((after - before) / before * 100, 1)
# The sentence must match this number exactly, and say nothing the chart cannot showWarning
An analyst found that classes using a new teaching tool scored 8 points higher on average and wrote "the new teaching tool raised test scores." But the classes that adopted the tool were also the ones with already-stronger results, taught by teachers who volunteered for it. The bounded evidence statement should instead read: "In this dataset, classes using the new tool scored higher; the data cannot rule out that already-stronger classes were more likely to volunteer for the tool."
- Writing "caused" when the evidence only supports "correlated," with nothing else to support causation
- Turning a single period's snapshot into a claim that this is how things always look
- Leaving out what the chart cannot answer, so the reader assumes it covers every angle
A scatter plot shows that stores with longer opening hours have higher revenue. Which caption is most correct?